Stefany Shaheen and Anthony DiLorenzo compete for the open New Hampshire 1st congressional seat, with the race shaped by an October 20 Saint Anselm College poll showing Shaheen at 46% to DiLorenzo’s 42% and an earlier University of New Hampshire survey at 56% to 35%. As an open seat after incumbent Chris Pappas pursued a Senate bid, the contest hinges on voter turnout among independents, local affordability concerns including childcare costs, and the final days of campaigning before the November 3 general election. Trader pricing on margins reflects this uncertainty, with the 10-15 point Democratic range holding the highest implied probability while narrower and wider bands remain active, consistent with polling variance and the district’s modest partisan lean.