Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi faces Republican Michael LiPetri Jr. in the November 3 general election for New York’s 3rd district, a rematch of the 2024 contest where Suozzi prevailed by roughly four to six points. Forecasts from multiple models project a Democratic margin in the low double digits, consistent with the district’s slight Democratic lean and Suozzi’s strong primary performance. LiPetri has focused on national Republican themes including fiscal policy and public safety, while Suozzi emphasizes his record of crossing party lines on immigration and crime legislation. With limited late polling and three days until ballots close, trader pricing on victory margins clustered between five and 15 points reflects uncertainty over turnout patterns in Nassau and Queens counties and any final national tailwinds.