Anthony Constantino holds a clear edge in the NY-21 House race due to the district’s longstanding Republican tilt and his strong primary performance. The open seat, vacated by retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik, has favored Republicans in recent cycles, including a Trump margin of roughly 5.5 points in 2024. Constantino, a self-funded businessman and Trump-endorsed nominee, outraised Democrat Blake Gendebien by a wide margin and secured the GOP nomination decisively in June. Recent polling shows a tight contest with Gendebien occasionally leading within the margin of error, yet forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Republican. With Election Day two days away, the combination of partisan fundamentals, fundraising disparity, and limited undecided voter movement supports the current trader consensus.