Trader consensus strongly backs OpenAI not announcing AGI before 2027, reflecting the persistent gap between today's leading large language models and the broad, reliable human-level performance across novel tasks that defines AGI for most analysts. Incremental gains in reasoning benchmarks and multimodal capabilities from recent releases have not closed this divide, while development timelines, safety reviews, and compute constraints continue to push credible milestones later. Other labs face similar hurdles, reinforcing the market-implied odds. That said, an unforeseen architectural leap, successful scaling of new training approaches, or revised internal AGI criteria could still trigger an earlier announcement within the period.