Google leads the implied probabilities at 53.5% for the best AI model by end of 2026, driven by the late-October release of Gemini 4 Carbon, which posted the highest score of 59 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and outperformed Claude Opus 5.5. Traders see sustained momentum from Google DeepMind’s rapid iteration on frontier large language models, strong results in coding and cybersecurity benchmarks, and broad platform integration. Anthropic holds 36.5% on the strength of its widely available Claude Opus 5.5, which leads accessible benchmarks in reasoning and agentic tasks. OpenAI’s lower 5.6% reflects recent price cuts and mid-tier releases that have not matched the latest top-line gains from competitors.