OpenAI’s explicit commitment to delay its IPO until 2027, reinforced by CEO Sam Altman’s September statements prioritizing AI safety over a 2026 listing, drives the 95% market-implied probability of no IPO by year-end. With only two months remaining, the confidential S-1 filing from June cannot realistically advance to a closing amid ongoing private fundraising—recently scaled back to a $20 billion raise at a $1.25 trillion valuation amid Nasdaq volatility and capital competition from Anthropic’s planned debut. Strong revenue momentum, with annualized run rates near $50 billion in September and targeting $70 billion by December, supports elevated valuations but does not accelerate the regulatory or market timeline. A last-minute reversal would require unforeseen shifts in safety priorities or market conditions.