The October 28 Monetary Policy Review, in which the RBNZ held the OCR at 2.75% by a narrow 4-3 vote yet signaled that tighter policy is likely required, remains the dominant factor anchoring the 71.5% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the December 9 meeting. Governor Anna Breman described the odds of a December increase as high, citing the committee’s consensus on upside inflation risks, with headline CPI projected to reach 4.4% in the December quarter largely from elevated fuel prices and NZD weakness. Recent labor-market softness and global-growth uncertainties explain the minority’s preference for caution and the 25% probability attached to no change, while the low odds on larger moves or cuts reflect the absence of evidence for outsized tightening or easing. Traders will monitor November labor data, inflation expectations, and the full December Monetary Policy Statement projections for any shift in the conditional tightening bias.