Nancy Lacore (D) and Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) face off in an open South Carolina 1st District seat previously held by retiring Republican Nancy Mace, producing a contest rated toss-up to lean Republican by forecasters. Recent polling from late October shows margins inside three points in either direction, with Lacore’s substantial fundraising advantage and military background offsetting the district’s R+6 to R+8 partisan lean and Honeycutt’s local council experience plus Republican outside spending. Trader consensus on near-even outcomes and sub-6% victory margins reflects these offsetting factors plus national midterm dynamics that have narrowed historical Republican advantages. Election-night vote counts on November 3 will determine resolution, with late shifts in turnout among coastal and suburban voters or final advertising surges the developments most likely to widen the margin.