Recent preliminary results from Serbia’s October 25 snap parliamentary election place the Aleksandar Vučić–led United Serbia list at approximately 39 percent of the vote, consistent with Republic Electoral Commission tallies from over 96 percent of stations and parallel counts by CeSID and Ipsos. This outcome aligns with the Student List securing a majority near 53 percent amid record turnout exceeding 68 percent. Traders assign 97.5 percent probability to the 35–40 percent band because these verified counts have remained stable. Repeat voting scheduled for November 1 at 53 stations and final official certification could still produce minor adjustments, though substantial shifts outside the observed range appear unlikely given the processed data volume and cross-verified projections.