South Africa's 2026 inflation trajectory reflects sustained upward pressure from elevated global oil prices amid Middle East supply disruptions and refinery margin expansion, which have driven domestic fuel costs sharply higher and boosted transport inflation to 10.8% year-on-year in September. The South African Reserve Bank raised its repo rate to 7.25% in September to anchor expectations, with its October Monetary Policy Review projecting headline CPI above 5% through early 2027 before base effects and potential fuel levy relief moderate the path. September CPI printed at 4.5%, below consensus, as core measures remained contained near 4.0% and food prices stayed subdued, yet October data is expected to breach 5% on further petrol surges. Market-implied odds above 5% for the 2026 annual rate price in these near-term shocks dominating the full-year average, with limited evidence of broad second-round effects so far.