Recent September-quarter CPI data showing headline inflation at 4.3% year-over-year and trimmed-mean measures at 3.7% annually—exceeding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August forecasts—have driven the 93.7% implied probability of a 25 basis point cash rate hike to 4.85% at the November 3 meeting. RBA Governor Michele Bullock and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser highlighted materializing upside risks from energy costs, capacity constraints, and the AI investment boom, while noting the labor market remains tighter than previously assessed despite unemployment reaching 4.7%. This aligns with consensus from major banks shifting to a hike call and market pricing reflecting skin-in-the-game trader sentiment. A softer-than-expected labor report or clearer signs of demand weakness could still introduce uncertainty ahead of the decision.