Recent polling averages place Republican incumbent Darline Graham and Democratic challenger Annie Andrews within one to two points of each other among likely voters, reflecting a race transformed by the July 2026 death of longtime Senator Lindsey Graham and the subsequent appointment of his sister Darline to finish the term. Andrews has gained ground by winning a majority of independents and eroding some Republican support, fueled by voter concerns over experience and economic pressures, while Graham retains strong party loyalty and benefits from late Republican advertising and presidential campaign visits. With early voting underway and Election Day on November 3, the narrow polling spread sustains trader consensus around a very close outcome or potential Democratic upset, as small shifts in turnout or final undecided voters could determine both the winner and the exact margin.