Recent polls ahead of Spain’s November 29 snap election place Podemos at roughly 2–3% nationally after it failed to join the broader Frente Amplio alliance except in limited regions such as Valencia and the Canary Islands. The D’Hondt system in smaller provinces sharply penalizes the resulting vote split on the left of the PSOE, confining projected seats to 0–2 across most aggregators. Trader pricing reflects this pattern, with zero seats as the modal outcome because Podemos lacks the concentrated support or broader pacts needed to clear thresholds in enough districts. The campaign period begins November 13, leaving little time for late shifts in the fragmented left vote.