Recent polls ahead of Spain’s November 29 general election place the PSOE vote share in the 26-28 percent range, consistent with the market’s leading outcome. The party has lost ground from its 31.7 percent result in 2023 amid a snap election triggered by housing-policy defeats and broader economic pressures. Left-wing fragmentation, including incomplete cooperation between the new Frente Amplio and Podemos, has limited PSOE’s ability to consolidate progressive support. A recent rail accident near Urda has shifted campaign focus toward government management and infrastructure competence. Meanwhile, PP leads at around 31 percent while Vox rises toward 19 percent, reflecting a consolidated right-wing bloc that continues to pressure PSOE’s positioning.