Recent polls ahead of Spain’s November 29 general election place Vox between 18.6% and 20%, with averages near 19% and several surveys showing modest weekly gains as support shifts from the PP. This consolidation around the 18-20% band aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting there, reflecting consistent trader assessment of Vox’s improved positioning since the 2023 result. The PP’s gradual decline has allowed Vox to capture additional conservative voters while the right-wing bloc retains a projected majority, limiting downside risk below 16%. Tight spreads among the 16-22% buckets reflect ongoing campaign volatility, PSOE stabilization, and regional variations that could still shift final turnout or preference flows in the remaining weeks.