Strava’s confirmed confidential S-1 filing in February 2026, paired with sustained user expansion beyond 200 million athletes and record mobile subscription revenue in 2026, anchors trader expectations near the company’s $2.2 billion May 2025 private mark. Secondary trading continues to reflect that level into October 2026, yet strong category leadership in health-and-fitness apps and board additions with public-market experience leave room for an IPO premium. The absence of a public registration statement or priced terms keeps the exact timing and final valuation fluid, producing the current tight distribution across the 2–5 billion and 7–10 billion buckets. Any acceleration toward a public filing, shifts in equity-market sentiment for consumer tech, or fresh revenue disclosures could quickly separate the leading ranges.