The Swiss National Bank’s September 2026 assessment, which held the policy rate at 0% amid inflation of 0.8% driven by energy prices and a conditional forecast remaining within the 0-2% target range through 2028, continues to anchor trader expectations for the December 10 decision. Minutes and recent communications indicate monetary conditions remain appropriate, with no signs of second-round effects and a depreciated Swiss franc supporting the outlook. This underpins the 86.9% implied probability of no change, while the modest 11.6% chance of a 25 basis point hike reflects global monetary tightening elsewhere and solid Swiss GDP growth of 1.5-2% for 2026. Market-implied odds assign negligible weight to cuts, consistent with the SNB’s reluctance to revisit negative rates absent sustained deflationary pressure.