Ongoing US sanctions and the naval blockade since July have halted Iranian crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz, sharply reducing hard-currency inflows and sustaining depreciation pressure on the rial despite central bank dollar sales of up to $2 billion. Free-market rates have stabilized near 2.7 million IRR per USD after October volatility, supported by interventions that narrowed gaps with official channels and curbed speculative swings, while inflation above 70 percent and fiscal strains continue to influence demand. With leading market ranges clustered between 2.5–3.5 million IRR, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether December outcomes will hold near current levels or shift with any changes in enforcement, limited LPG shipments, or diplomatic signals.