**US sanctions and naval blockade have sharply curtailed Iran's oil exports and foreign-currency inflows since late August 2026, driving parallel-market depreciation of the rial.** Operation Economic Outcast designations targeting shipping networks, facilitators, and sectors such as aviation and finance, combined with border restrictions and halted loadings at Kharg Island, reduced revenue and pushed unofficial USD/IRR rates to record levels near 2.687 million by mid-to-late October. Inflation reached approximately 90 percent in September while reserves came under pressure, reinforcing expectations that the free-market rate would close the month in the 2.7–2.8 million band. Traders price this range highest because recent enforcement actions sustained the currency weakness without immediate offsetting diplomatic or export relief.