Incumbent Republican John McGuire holds an edge in Virginia's 5th congressional district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6 that Republicans have carried by double digits in recent cycles. Recent September polling, including a Washington Post/Schar School survey showing McGuire ahead 51-45 among likely voters, aligns with forecaster ratings that place the contest in the Leans or Likely Republican range. McGuire secured his party's nomination easily in the August primary after winning the seat in 2024, while Democrat Tom Perriello, a former representative for the district, prevailed in his primary but trails in fundraising efficiency and voter surveys. With the November 3 general election two days away, trader consensus reflected in current pricing tracks these structural and polling factors.