Elevated geopolitical risk premiums from ongoing Middle East supply disruptions, including constraints on Persian Gulf exports and Strait of Hormuz flows tied to the US-Iran conflict, remain the dominant driver supporting WTI crude prices near $100–105 per barrel in early November 2026. Recent IEA data highlight global demand contraction of roughly 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026 amid high product prices and softer macro conditions, while OPEC+ elected to hold December output targets unchanged at its November 1 meeting, with actual Gulf production still below quotas. US crude inventories continue to draw amid elevated refinery margins, though domestic output near 14 million barrels per day provides some offset. Traders are monitoring the November 3 US midterms for potential policy shifts, weekly EIA inventory releases, and the November 29 OPEC+ session on 2027 quotas, as any de-escalation could ease the risk premium embedded in forward curves.