Persistent Middle East supply disruptions, including constraints on Persian Gulf flows and the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, represent the dominant driver lifting WTI crude prices above $100 per barrel as of early November 2026. These factors have shifted market balances into deficit, prompting analysts to raise 2026 average price forecasts to the mid-to-high $80s or higher, with the EIA projecting Brent near $105 in the fourth quarter. Weak Chinese refining demand and high inventories there have capped further gains, while OPEC+ has held production targets steady amid the uncertainty. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming OPEC+ meetings, any diplomatic progress on regional flows, and U.S. inventory data that could influence trader positioning on price thresholds.