Recent polls ahead of New Zealand’s 7 November election show the National-ACT-NZ First bloc competitive for a parliamentary majority, often aided by projected overhang seats from electorate wins, while Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori trail and face steeper paths to 61-plus seats under mixed-member proportional rules. National has consistently ruled out working with The Opportunities Party, narrowing its options and boosting the implied probability of its existing coalition partners returning to government. Labour has ruled out deals with National, ACT or NZ First, limiting left-leaning combinations to the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and potentially Opportunity. Late-October surveys from Reid Research, Verian and others indicate volatility in party support and seat projections, with neither bloc securing a clear majority in most simulations and coalition negotiations likely to follow official results.