The short remaining timeframe until the end of 2026 anchors the 98% trader consensus on no full-scale invasion, as amphibious operations of that scale demand extensive visible mobilization, logistics buildup, and force posture shifts absent from recent patterns. The most recent major development—Taiwan’s October 28 reporting of over 50 Chinese naval and official vessels, including the Liaoning carrier group, operating across a broad area from southern Japan to the Philippines—has been described by Beijing as routine annual training and by Taipei as gray-zone pressure rather than imminent assault preparations. Ongoing missile drills, air and maritime incursions, and hybrid tactics continue at elevated but consistent levels without crossing into pre-invasion thresholds. Scenarios that could still shift odds include abrupt escalation from current naval movements or unforeseen leadership decisions, though both remain low-probability within the narrow window.