Traders assign a 94.5% probability against a direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting by December 31, 2026, reflecting persistent gaps in negotiation sequencing and venue. Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy has produced agreement on technical-level trilateral talks among Ukrainian, Russian, and American delegations in Abu Dhabi in early or mid-November, centered on post-conflict security arrangements rather than immediate leader-level engagement. Kremlin statements emphasize that any presidential summit requires extensive preparatory work and would be most productive after substantive progress, while reiterating an invitation limited to Moscow—a location Kyiv has rejected in favor of neutral sites. Zelenskyy has signaled openness to discussing territory directly with Putin but only after lower-level meetings advance, and recent comments from both sides have floated phone contact instead of an in-person bilateral encounter. With the resolution window closing in roughly eight weeks and no confirmed summit date or format, these structural and procedural constraints sustain the strong market consensus against a meeting occurring.