The absence of any military tensions, territorial disputes, or policy signals from U.S. or Danish officials drives the 97.3% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026. Strong bilateral ties, NATO alliance commitments, and shared Arctic security interests reinforce trader consensus that no such action is under consideration. Diplomatic channels remain open for any resource or autonomy discussions, consistent with historical patterns of peaceful negotiations rather than force. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden geopolitical crises involving Russia or China in the region, a dramatic reversal in executive branch strategy, or Greenland's independence referendum outcomes that alter sovereignty dynamics, though these remain low-probability events within the resolution window.