Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures and Republican challenger Rhett Marques remain closely matched in Alabama’s 2nd District, where redistricting created an R+7 Partisan Voter Index but internal Democratic polls from summer 2026 showed ties at 46-47%. Figures benefits from incumbency, name recognition, and potential strong turnout among Black voters in Montgomery, while Marques draws on Republican base strength in the Wiregrass region and national party support. With the November 3 general election approaching and few public polls since August, traders price a range of narrow margins as most likely, reflecting uncertainty over turnout differentials and any late campaign developments that could widen or close the gap.