Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the Florida Senate special election as the Republican incumbent appointed in 2025 to complete Marco Rubio’s term. Recent polling averages show her ahead by roughly five to seven points among likely voters, reflecting Florida’s Republican lean, her strong primary performance, and endorsements including from President Trump. Nixon, the Democratic state representative nominee, trails despite gains in fundraising and progressive policy focus, with recent scrutiny over her Cuba comments limiting broader appeal. Early voting and turnout patterns among suburban and older voters favor Moody, while the race’s rating as solid or likely Republican underscores the structural barriers for an upset on November 3. Late shifts in participation could narrow margins but face steep odds given the consistent data.