The severely limited U.S. theatrical release of Sacha Baron Cohen’s mockumentary “Ali G: Who Iz I?”—trimmed to roughly three days across about 125 screens following widespread backlash over the character’s dated and controversial portrayal—drives the market’s overwhelming 96.4% implied probability for under $2 million in domestic opening-weekend gross. Mixed-to-negative reviews (42% on Rotten Tomatoes) and the film’s quick pivot to Prime Video on October 28 further dampened theatrical interest, while international results (UK $1.8 million, Australia $299,000) reflect similar constraints. Traders view the setup as structurally capped, with only an unexpectedly robust word-of-mouth surge or last-minute screen additions in key markets like New York and Los Angeles offering realistic paths to a higher bracket.