Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a consistent polling edge of 9–16 points over Democrat Hallie Shoffner in the final days before the November 3 vote, consistent with Arkansas’s strong Republican lean and Cotton’s incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition. Recent surveys from Hendrix College and GrayHouse show Republican consolidation and undecided voters breaking his way after earlier summer polls had been closer. Traders price the most likely Republican margins in the 5–25 point range because the state’s partisan baseline and low undecided share limit upside for Shoffner while leaving room for variation from turnout, third-party support, and late shifts. A Democratic win remains a low-probability outcome given the structural headwinds.