Recent softer-than-expected IPCA-15 inflation of 0.32% through mid-October, alongside annual readings near 4.6%, has tempered expectations for aggressive easing by the Banco Central do Brasil, even as the Selic stands at 13.75% following five consecutive 25-basis-point cuts. Economist surveys in the Focus report hold the year-end 2026 median steady at 13.25%, implying further modest reductions, yet market-implied odds favor no change in December at 52% amid elevated inflation expectations above the 3% target, post-election fiscal uncertainty, and signs of economic slowdown. The November Copom meeting remains the nearer-term catalyst, with traders pricing limited room for a second consecutive cut by year-end given persistent de-anchoring risks and labor market resilience.