**Persistent inflation above the Banco Central do Brasil’s 3% target, with the 12-month IPCA near 4.58–4.62% in recent readings, has anchored trader expectations for no change at the November Copom meeting.** The Selic rate stands at 13.75% following five 25-basis-point cuts in 2026, but September’s 0.82% monthly print and sticky services inflation have tempered earlier optimism for additional easing. Market-implied odds heavily favor holding steady at 81%, with only modest pricing for a 25 bp cut, reflecting caution amid elevated inflation expectations in Focus surveys and a still-tight labor market. Recent IPCA-15 data showed some moderation, yet the trajectory remains insufficient to shift the baseline consensus toward further cuts before year-end. The November 4 decision serves as the immediate catalyst shaping these probabilities.