The Banco de la República’s October 30 decision to hold the policy rate steady at 12.25%—a split 4-3 vote—reflects the dominant market-implied odds of no change in December, as slowing third-quarter growth and weaker private and public consumption offset persistent inflation pressures. Headline CPI rose modestly to 6.29% year-over-year in September, remaining well above the 3% target, while core inflation eased slightly to 6.0% amid upside risks from the El Niño phenomenon. The board highlighted fiscal uncertainty from the new Economic Rescue Bill and noted that the restrictive real rate of roughly 4% supports a cautious stance, with third-quarter GDP data due in mid-November and the next policy meeting in December serving as key catalysts. Market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike at 26.7% capture the minority view favoring further tightening, while lower probabilities for cuts or larger moves align with the current data-dependent path.