Trump’s approval rating has fallen to the low-to-mid 30s in recent national polls, near or at record lows for his presidencies, amid persistent economic pressures and the ongoing conflict with Iran. Traders are focused on how sharply ratings could decline through the remainder of 2026, given voter dissatisfaction with inflation, elevated gasoline prices tied to the war, and tariff impacts on costs. Support has eroded even among 2024 Trump voters, particularly younger and Hispanic cohorts, while Republican identification on the economy has weakened. The November 3 midterms and subsequent policy responses on trade, energy, and foreign engagements represent near-term catalysts that could either accelerate further drops or produce modest stabilization depending on economic data and conflict developments.