Strong economic expansion and persistently elevated inflation have driven the market-implied odds of zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026 to 97%. The October 28 FOMC statement highlighted resilient domestic spending, robust productivity, and a stable labor market alongside inflation remaining above the 2% target, with September PCE at 3.6%. Following the September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75–4.00% range, officials signaled a data-dependent stance favoring patience over easing, reinforced by two dissents preferring further tightening. This hawkish tilt aligns with recent GDP revisions showing acceleration and limited progress on price stability. A meaningful shift in odds would require either a sharp inflation decline or a pronounced slowdown in growth and employment data ahead of the December meeting.