The Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.75–4.00 percent range, following the September hike, has anchored near-term expectations and kept the 2-year Treasury yield near 4.61 percent as of October 29. Persistent inflation, with September CPI at 3.7 percent and core at 2.6 percent, alongside resilient GDP growth near 3.4 percent annualized in Q3 and a stable 4.2 percent unemployment rate, has limited scope for near-term rate cuts that would pull yields lower. The December 8–9 FOMC meeting, which includes updated economic projections, and intervening data releases such as the November jobs report and CPI will shape trader views on whether the yield can decline meaningfully before year-end.