Democrats currently hold three of Arizona’s nine U.S. House seats, with Republicans defending six. Trader consensus centers on five or six Democratic seats because the two most competitive Republican-held districts—AZ-1, an open seat, and AZ-6, held by incumbent Juan Ciscomani—have shifted toward Democratic candidates Amish Shah and JoAnna Mendoza in recent polling and ratings. A national midterm environment unfavorable to the president’s party has boosted Democratic performance among independents in these battlegrounds. AZ-2 remains the only other plausible flip opportunity but leans Republican. The three solidly Democratic districts and three solidly Republican districts anchor the range, leaving limited room for outcomes outside four to six seats absent late shifts in turnout or campaign spending.