The cohesion of Iran's security apparatus, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, underpins trader consensus that the regime will not fall before 2027 despite U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early 2026 and triggered leadership succession to his son Mojtaba. Recent nationwide protests sparked by currency collapse and economic hardship since late 2025 have persisted into October but remain fragmented without coordinated opposition or elite defections capable of fracturing institutions. Ongoing diplomatic efforts and military pauses have not produced the institutional breakdown required for collapse, aligning with historical patterns where authoritarian systems endure external pressure absent internal elite splits. Realistic shifts could still arise from accelerated economic deterioration prompting security force resignations or unified opposition emergence before the 2027 threshold.