US Central Command currently maintains two carrier strike groups in the Arabian Sea—USS George H.W. Bush and USS George Washington—supporting operations tied to Iran tensions and maritime interdiction. The USS Theodore Roosevelt strike group is transiting westward after stops in the Pacific, with arrival in CENTCOM projected for late November, though reports differ on whether it will augment the force or relieve George Washington as part of standard rotation. This uncertainty, combined with operational security around exact schedules and potential post-election policy shifts, sustains tight trader consensus between two and three carriers by November 30. Further escalation signals or confirmed relief timelines could widen the gap, while delays or additional drawdowns would favor the lower outcome.