Recent incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, including multiple oil tankers striking mines or explosive devices on October 29–30, have elevated risks for commercial shipping through the chokepoint that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies. Iranian Revolutionary Guard claims of successful interdictions on vessels using unauthorized routes, alongside UKMTO reports of limpet mines and projectiles causing engine fires, have sharply reduced AIS-visible transits to about 8% of pre-crisis norms. These developments widen tanker insurance spreads, lift risk premiums in energy futures, and sustain elevated volatility in Brent crude benchmarks. Ongoing Qatari-mediated talks between Iran and the United States, coupled with potential U.S. naval responses or mine-clearance operations, represent near-term catalysts that could shift daily targeting probabilities reflected in trader consensus.