The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli strikes earlier in 2026 triggered Iran's Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba as successor in March, establishing him as the clear frontrunner for retaining the role through year-end. Mojtaba's established ties to security institutions and the regime's economic networks have reinforced continuity during active conflict, while official statements from the president, parliament speaker, and judiciary chief have repeatedly affirmed his health and operational control despite limited public visibility. A temporary leadership council managed the initial transition under constitutional rules, and the Assembly's reported consensus process has limited openings for alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or Hassan Khomeini. Traders appear to weigh the low probability of rapid further upheaval before December against historical patterns of swift clerical succession.