The Iranian regime has demonstrated resilience amid sustained U.S. and Israeli military strikes since early 2026 that degraded its missile, nuclear, and proxy capabilities, alongside nationwide protests triggered by economic collapse and currency devaluation that began in late 2025. The October 2026 death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent leadership transition under Mojtaba Khamenei introduced internal factional strains but did not produce security force defections or coordinated opposition capable of forcing systemic change. Traders assign an 81% implied probability to regime survival through mid-2027 because the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains cohesive, repression continues to contain unrest, and no single catalyst—such as elite fracture or external intervention triggering rapid collapse—has materialized despite ongoing diplomatic mediation efforts over the Strait of Hormuz.