Recent developments in the Luigi Mangione case, including the Manhattan DA’s October 9 filing opposing dismissal of state murder and weapons charges on double jeopardy grounds, have reinforced trader expectations that no trial will occur before 2027. The state proceeding, originally set for jury selection in September, remains paused pending a late-autumn ruling and a December 10 hearing, while the federal stalking conviction carries a December sentencing and a separate trial now slated for January 2027. These layered procedural hurdles, combined with the time required for motions and potential appeals, have driven the market-implied odds heavily toward “No,” reflecting consensus that scheduling realities and ongoing litigation make an earlier start improbable despite the case’s high public profile.