Trader consensus assigns a 65.5% probability to no change in the chancellorship before 2028, reflecting the current CDU/CSU-SPD coalition under Friedrich Merz formed after the February 2025 election and scheduled to run until early 2029. Recent YouGov polling shows only 23% of Germans expect the government to complete its full term, with widespread anticipation of a potential collapse in 2027 or 2028 amid weak coalition support and AfD gains in state contests. Leading named candidates such as Hendrik Wüst (13.5%) and Markus Söder (7.6%) draw from internal CDU/CSU discussions on succession, where Wüst often polls ahead on suitability, while Alice Weidel (4.3%) and Boris Pistorius (4.2%) register lower due to party and coalition barriers. These implied probabilities embed the coalition’s procedural resilience and absence of immediate triggers like a lost confidence vote.