Recent polling has solidified trader consensus around Jess Wilson as the likely next Victorian premier ahead of the November 28 state election. Multiple surveys, including Newspoll and Roy Morgan, show the Liberal-National Coalition leading Labor 55-45 or 56-44 on a two-party-preferred basis, with Wilson ahead of Premier Ben Carroll as preferred leader by double-digit margins. The Coalition's primary vote has risen while Labor's remains in the mid-20s despite Carroll's July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan. Wilson's policy focus on bail reform, crime, debt reduction, and housing supply has sustained momentum, while Labor faces a 10-point swing against its 2022 result. Lower odds for Carroll, Sonya Kilkenny, and others reflect the election's major-party dynamics and the Coalition's structural advantage one month from polling day.