Recent momentum for One Nation, including Barnaby Joyce’s 2025 defection and the party’s 2026 Farrer by-election win, has kept trader focus on possible further sitting MP moves amid rising polls and recruitment interest from figures such as WA Upper House MP Ben Dawkins. Competitive balance stems from the party’s appeal to disaffected Coalition and Labor members on issues like migration and energy policy, offset by internal controversies, major-party retention efforts, and the small pool of confirmed 2026 switches to date. Upcoming state election candidate announcements or additional public expressions of interest before year-end could shift the implied probability either direction.