Recent opinion polls for the November 28 Victorian state election show the Liberal–National Coalition leading primary votes at 28–30 percent, positioning it for first place, while Labor holds 24–25 percent and One Nation trails closely at 20–24 percent. This consistent gap across Resolve, RedBridge, DemosAU, and Freshwater surveys underpins trader consensus that Labor will finish second, with One Nation’s regional strength and preference flows creating the main uncertainty for that spot. Greens support at 14–16 percent and minor parties below 10 percent limit their prospects for second. Recent campaign activity on toll caps, government debt, and youth crime has produced only modest Labor gains without altering the primary ordering, and the six-week timeline leaves limited scope for late shifts before preferential counting determines final positions.