Recent hotter-than-expected Australian CPI data, with headline inflation rising to 4.3% year-over-year and trimmed-mean inflation at 3.6% for the September quarter, has reinforced upside risks to the RBA’s 2–3% target amid persistent capacity pressures and elevated energy costs from Middle East developments. This has elevated market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the November 3 meeting, positioning the cash rate near 4.85% and supporting a subsequent hold in December as the primary scenario. Trader consensus reflects the RBA’s recent hawkish communications, including Governor Bullock’s emphasis on inflation risks, while acknowledging the cumulative 100 basis points of tightening already delivered in 2026 and moderating growth signals. Key near-term catalysts remain the November decision and any further data on wages or global commodity prices.