Republican Alan Wilson holds a consistent polling lead of roughly 8–11 points over Democrat Jermaine Johnson in the open-seat race, with recent surveys from Siena, Targoz, and others placing Wilson near 49–51% and Johnson near 38–44%. South Carolina’s Republican tilt, the party’s unbroken gubernatorial winning streak since 2002, and Wilson’s profile as the longtime attorney general have anchored trader expectations for a Republican victory margin concentrated in the 5–15 point range. The absence of major late-breaking developments or shifts in the final week has kept probabilities distributed across those buckets rather than concentrated on a blowout or a near tie. High early-voting turnout and standard get-out-the-vote efforts in the remaining days could still adjust the final spread within the most heavily traded intervals.