Recent third-quarter GDP growth of 3.4% annualized, supported by robust consumer spending and business investment, along with a 4.2% unemployment rate and Sahm rule reading at zero, underpins the 94% market-implied probability against a U.S. recession by end-2026. Positive yield-curve spreads and low jobless claims further reinforce the expansion, consistent with New York Fed model estimates around 13% for recession risk over the next 12 months. Elevated PCE inflation near 3.6% has prompted expectations of additional Fed rate hikes, yet traders price a soft-landing path. Realistic challenges include sharper monetary tightening or external shocks that could tip conditions into contraction before year-end.